By Vujica Yevjevich, Nilgun Bayraktar Harmancioglu (auth.), Vijay P. Singh (eds.)
Floods represent a power and significant issue during the usa and plenty of different elements of the area. they're liable for losses amounting to billions of greenbacks and rankings of deaths every year. almost all elements of the nation--coastal, moun tainous and rural--are laid low with them. features of the matter of flooding that experience lengthy been themes of clinical inquiry are flood frequency and danger analyses. Many new, even enhanced, tech niques have lately been built for appearing those analyses. however, genuine adventure issues out that the frequency of say a IOO-year flood, in lieu of being encountered at the typical as soon as in a single hundred years, can be as low as as soon as in 25 years. it's hence applicable to pause and ask the place we're, the place we're going and the place we needs to be going in regards to the know-how of flood frequency and probability analyses. a technique to deal with those ques tions is to supply a discussion board the place humans from all quarters of the area can gather, talk about and proportion their adventure and services concerning flood frequency and hazard analyses. this can be what con stituted the incentive for organizing the foreign Symposium on Flood Frequency and danger Analyses held may possibly 14-17, 1986, at Louisiana country Universj. ty, Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
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2 Subjective Probability and Prior Distributions Unlike classical sampling theory which deals with distributions of statistics given fixed but unknown parameters, Bayesian theory deals with distributions of parameters given known data. The meaning of probability in this context has aroused much debate. The view taken here is that we "regard probability as a mathematical expression of our degree of belief with respect to a certain proposition" (Box and Tiao, 1973). Taking a subjective view of probability should not restrict the generality of a Bayesian analysis.
It also minimizes dam owner's liability on damages due to failure of their dams. This is becoming increasingly important in view of recent court cases which indicate a trend of victim compensation for damage caused by dam failures. The second approach is based on the theory that society cannot afford the cost of preventing all dams from failure and that the assignment of an infinite value to human life is wasteful and contrary to common practices on expenditures for safety in other phases of human society.
There is a reason to believe that extraordinary floods and frequent and minor floods do not come from the same parent population. In addition to this, it is difficult to estimate the recurrence interval of historic floods. And therefore the outliers could hardly match the ordinary floods even if the historic floods are involved. Closely scrutinizing the features of the heavy rain storms, we find that Probable Maximum Precipitation and Flood (PMP/PMF) estimation is favorable compared with that of frequency analysis.